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Updated May Outlook Signals Split-Screen for Weather Across the U.S.

Christy Bowen

2 hours ago
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's Monthly Temperature Outlook for May 2026 shows a dramatic split, with well-above-normal heat dominating the West and below-normal temperatures forecast for the Midwest and Northeast. Source: NOAA/NWS/CPC

Many Americans across the eastern half of the nation were checking their calendars over the weekend to confirm that it was indeed May.  A new outlook for the month from The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2 is warning that this could be one of the coolest Mays in the last 15 years. Here is a look at the updated May outlook and what it means for temperatures and precipitation chances over the next few weeks.

Cool May Will Persist for Eastern U.S.

May is expected to usher in noticeably cooler temperatures when compared to seasonal averages for much of the Midwest and the Northeast. According to Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with Atmospheric G2, the month could end up being the second chilliest May over the past 15 years. The forecasting group is estimating that 141 million Americans in the Midwest and the Northeast will be bundling up more this month when compared to normal. This accounts for just over 40% of the population who will be waiting a bit longer for summer's arrival.

The NOAA 6–10 day outlook valid May 9–13 reinforces the split-screen pattern, with a high probability of above-normal temperatures in the West and below-normal readings across the Great Lakes and Northeast.

What will make the chill even more notable is that it is coming after a record warm March and April for much of the country. The cooler-than-average temperatures are in the forecast for the eastern two-thirds of the country.

The chill in the air will mean that some parts of the Great Lakes and the Midwest may be dealing with frost and freeze events much later than what is typically seen. This could result in damage to early blooming plants and crops. Residents in this area are being advised to monitor the local overnight forecasts throughout the month in order to know when to take action to protect sensitive plants.


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